Is Homelessness Really Falling? Probably Not

According to government data, the number of homeless people sleeping on the streets has fallen by 32% since 2007. Officials have interpreted the downward trend as evidence that we have finally learned what it takes to solve homelessness. Are they right?

Probably not. In a new study, I find that miscounting the homeless appears to play a major role in the reported decline. City ordinances that criminalize homelessness (such as restrictions on sharing food with the homeless or preventing them from lying down in public) may contribute to the decline as well. Meanwhile, policies focused on providing permanent housing for the homeless appear to play only a minor role. Given that the overall reduction in homelessness in recent years relies completely on the plummeting street counts, the administration’s progress toward ending homelessness should be questioned.