Posted on July 13, 2015 by Jacquelyn Simone A number of cities around the country have claimed that street homelessness is significantly declining – which would be welcome news if it were true. In New York City, a battalion of volunteers conduct an annual street survey each February called the Homeless Outreach Population Estimate (HOPE). The most recent survey claimed that the city’s unsheltered population went down by 5 percent from 2014 to 2015 – an assertion that runs directly counter to what most of us are seeing on the streets every day. The Coalition has questioned the HOPE survey’s accuracy for years. The street homeless population is inherently difficult to quantify, but the methodology of counting only the people in known and visible locations over a single night in the middle of winter is particularly problematic. As a result, New York – and other cities – notoriously undercount street homelessness. Underestimating the scope of street homelessness distracts policymakers and lessens the incentive to enact long-term, proven solutions. Supportive housing, for example, has been shown to effectively get people off the streets and keep them stably housed by offering vital on-site supportive services such as mental health treatment. Rather than touting flawed data as evidence that homelessness is dramatically decreasing, cities need to acknowledge the real, persistent problems affecting the street homeless population – and dedicate resources to actually end the crisis once and for all. Kevin Corinth, an economist at the American Enterprise Institute, summarized his recent research on this topic for The Huffington Post: Given that the overall reduction in homelessness in recent years relies completely on the plummeting street counts, the administration’s progress toward ending homelessness should be questioned. Why the skepticism over these numbers? For one thing, counting the unsheltered homeless — those who sleep on sidewalks, in parks, in their cars, in abandoned buildings and under bridges — is an extremely difficult task. The fact that communities form their own methodologies for conducting counts, or that they are carried out by volunteers with little training, doesn’t help. Furthermore, annual count nights are publicly announced ahead of time, giving distrustful homeless individuals the opportunity to remain hidden. Abrupt changes in counts in particular areas cast doubt on their accuracy as well. Between 2007 and 2009, the street homeless count in Detroit fell by over 13,000 people (a 98% decrease). Over the same period, the Los Angeles street count fell by over 17,000 people (a 47% decrease). Between 2011 and 2014, Tampa’s street count fell by over 5,000 people (an 83% decrease). Over the same period, the state of Colorado — excluding the Denver and Colorado Springs areas — saw its street count fall by over 7,000 people (an 88% decrease). These four examples alone account for over half of the national street count reduction since 2007.
